Holiday Hits Forecast 2024: The Christmas songs set to make millions for artists
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas in November, with festive songs seeing a huge surge in plays worldwide as people get into the holiday spirit.
Singers of old-school festive favourites along with newbies to Christmas playlists, like Sabrina Carpenter, have seen a spike in listens on Spotify since the beginning of November, which is only expected to rise further in the run-up to Christmas Day.
Although, Christmas may come early for those featuring on 2024’s favourite Christmas songs list so far, with potential royalty payments already reaching over $166,600 for Mariah Carey’s ‘All I Want for Christmas Is You’ in the first three weeks of November alone.
As festive listening picks up, these royalty figures are predicted to reach into the millions for several artists by Christmas Day.
To reveal the top Christmas songs of 2024, Jackpot City has been tracking the number of plays for each popular Christmas song in the first three weeks of November on Spotify; analysing the cumulative increase in plays to figure out what these figures may look like by Christmas Day and how much this could make for artists in royalty payments.
On average, it’s predicted that Spotify pays the right holders of songs around $0.003 to $0.005 per stream, usually divided between the artist, the label and the publisher.
The Top 20 Most Popular Christmas Songs Of 2024 So Far, In November
Mariah Carey’s ‘All I Want for Christmas Is You’ has emerged as the most popular Christmas song for getting into the festive spirit so far this year, with over 41.6 million plays in the first three weeks of November - earning an estimated $166,606 in royalties.
‘Last Christmas’ by Wham! takes second place, with over 37.8 million listens since the start of November, bringing in around $151,460 in royalty payments.
Brenda Lee’s ‘Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree’ (1958) has made a resurgence as the third most popular Christmas song in the run-up to Christmas, with over 13.32 million plays since November 1st - around $104,961 in royalty payments.
‘Jingle Bell Rock’ (1957) by Bobby Helms, ‘Snowman’ (2017) by Sia, and ‘Let It Snow’ (1959) by Dean Martin make up the world’s top five favorite Christmas songs so far this year.
2024’s Predicted Top 20 Most Popular Christmas Songs, By December 27th
Looking forward to December, Mariah Carey, Wham!, Brenda Lee, and Bobby Helms remain the top four festive favourites with their powerhouse songs, and are predicted to see the largest rise in plays overall by Christmas Day.
Estimated to see an uplift of over 1.83 billion plays on Spotify in just two months, Mariah Carey looks set to earn over $7.34 million in royalty payments by the end of the festive season - the highest of all artists.
‘Last Christmas’ by Wham! is predicted to earn over $5.9 million in royalty payments from over 1.47 million plays.
And $5.35 million in royalties from over 1.33 million plays is enough to get anyone ‘Rockin Around The Christmas Tree’ like Brenda Lee this Christmas.
All the top 20 songs predicted to see the largest surge in Spotify streams by Christmas Day are expected to generate over $1.5 million in royalties each from November 1 to December 27 for artists; with a cumulative rise in the number streams for all songs set to reach over 22 billion.
With two of his Christmas songs in the top 20, Michael Bublé can expect to make just over $6.35 million in royalties - The second-largest Christmas royalty payout overall, behind Mariah.
And despite only releasing her Christmas song last year, Sabrina Carpenter looks set to earn more this year with ‘Nonsense Christmas’ (2023) than Bing Crosby’s classic ‘White Christmas’ (1941), estimated at just over $1.76 million and $1.7 million in royalties respectively.
Commenting on the research, a spokesperson at Jackpot City, said:
“Spotify users have proven that it’s never too early to listen to Christmas songs this year, with listeners opting for festive favorites from the start of November leading to streams of the most popular Christmas songs expected to reach over 22 billion by December 27th.
“While it’s no surprise that Mariah Carey’s ‘All I Want for Christmas is You’ is already the most popular Christmas song in 2024, the volume of listens so far and potential royalty earnings of over $7 million by Christmas Day are jawdropping.
“After her mega hits this year, Sabrina Carpenter might also dominate the festive season, with plays of her song ‘Nonsense Christmas’ predicted to reach into the top 20 after only being released last year. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the Christmas period plays out for our favorite Yuletide artists.”
ENDS
Methodology
Jackpot City utilized Spotify data to gather the number of listens for each popular Christmas song in the first three weeks of November. This data was used to work out a cumulative increase rate in song plays, to estimate how many streams each song will have by 27 December if the current trajectory continues.
Royalty estimates were generated assuming that Spotify pays the right holders of songs around $0.003 to $0.005 on average per stream, usually divided between the artist, the label and the publisher.